1347-0159

AA11577672

6796284

We analyzed the Chinese frozen dumplings poisoning incident which occurred in Japan in January 2008 involving food imports from China. We accomplished this task by focusing on the degree and duration of its impact. In addition, we compared the results of this study with that of the previous study, which analyzed the impact of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and avian influenza on meat demand in Japan. The main analysis results are as follows: First, imports of dumplings－which are directly related to the incident－have continued to significantly decline as of this date. Second, the degree and duration of the impact on the items not directly related to the incident (prepared or preserved pork products, prepared or preserved vegetables, and dried vegetables) are varied. Third, comparing this study with the previous study in terms of the degree of impact, the import quantity of dumplings and prepared or preserved pork has remained at about 40% of the pre-incident level to date. Therefore, the Chinese frozen dumplings poisoning incident—which was artificial—had a greater impact. Fourth, in comparison with the previous study in terms of duration, the impact of bird flu disappeared in nine months, and that of BSE showed a recovery trend after three months. By contrast, the import quantity of dumplings directly related to the incident, and the prepared or preserved pork products not directly related to the incident, continue to significantly decline. Thus, the impact of the incident is long lasting. This suggests that artificial incidents like the Chinese frozen dumpling poisoning have a greater and longer impact than non-artificial food safety incidents like BSE and bird flu.