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<図書>
Behavioral decision theory : a new approach

責任表示 E.C. Poulton
データ種別 図書
出版者 Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
出版年 1994
本文言語 英語
大きさ xix, 314 p. : ill. ; 24 cm
概要 This book discusses the well-known fallacies of behavioral decision theory. It shows that while an investigator is studying a fallacy, he or she may introduce without realizing it, one of the simple b...ases that are found in quantifying judgments. The work covers such fallacies as the apparent overconfidence that people show when they judge the probability of correctness of their answers to two-choice general knowledge questions using a one-sided rating scale; the apparent overconfidence in setting uncertainty bounds on unknown quantities when using the fractile method; the interactions between hindsight and memory; the belief that small samples are as reliable and as representative as are large samples; the conjunction fallacy for Linda and Bill; the causal conjunction fallacy; the regression fallacy in prediction; the neglect of the base rate in the Cab problem, in predicting professions, and in the Medical Diagnosis problem; the availability and simulation fallacies; the anchoring and adjustment biases; Prospect theory; and bias by frames. The aim of this book is to help readers to learn about the fallacies and to avoid them. 続きを見る

所蔵情報


理系図3F 数理独自 068222194006228 POUL/10/1 1994

書誌詳細

一般注記 Includes bibliographical references and index
著者標目 *Poulton, E. C.
件 名 LCSH:Probabilities
LCSH:Fallacies (Logic)
分 類 LCC:QA273
DC20:519.2
書誌ID 1000219280
ISBN 0521443687
NCID BA24157565
巻冊次 ISBN:0521443687
登録日 2009.09.11
更新日 2009.11.02

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