九州大学農学部生物資源環境科学科生物資源生産科学コース農政経済学分野
Program of Agricultural Economics, Course of Agricultural Production, Engineering and Economics, Department of Bioresouce and Bioenvironment, School of Agriculture, Kyushu University
九州大学大学院生物資源環境科学府農業資源経済学専攻農業関連産業組織学講座食料産業システム解析学研究室
Laboratory of Food Industrial System Analysis, Division of Industrial Organization of Agribusiness, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Graduate School of Bioresource and Bioenvironmental Sciences, Kyushu University
九州大学大学院農学研究院農業資源経済学部門農業関連産業組織学講座食料産業システム解析学分野
Laboratory of Food Industrial System Analysis, Division of Industrial Organization of Agribusiness, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Kyushu University
九州大学大学院農学研究院農業資源経済学部門農業関連産業組織学講座食料産業システム解析学分野
Laboratory of Food Industrial System Analysis, Division of Industrial Organization of Agribusiness, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Kyushu University
In recent years, the demand for cheese has been increasing though the demand for other dairy products has been declining in Japan. Japanese Government has tried to support the enhancement of cheese production. Accordingly, major cheese manufacturers have been building up large-scale factories and are increasing production of cheese. However, there is a possibility that the demand for imported cheese increases while the demand for domestic cheese product remains the same level if the tariff of cheese is reduced by WTO agriculture negotiation in the future. In this paper, we analyze the substitutability between domestic cheese product and imported one by making use of POS data. Moreover, we forecast future demand for the domestic cheese product assuming two trade scenarios under the condition of reduction in tariff. The main results are as follows. First of all, the substitutability between domestic cheese product and imported one is low. Besides, the demand for the domestic cheese product continues to increase if the tariff is reduced. Therefore, it can be said that the support of the government to cheese production is appropriate.
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