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The Craft of Probabilistic Modelling : A Collection of Personal Accounts

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概要 This book brings together the personal accounts and reflections of nineteen mathematical model-builders, whose specialty is probabilistic modelling. The reader may well wonder why, apart from personal... interest, one should commission and edit such a collection of articles. There are, of course, many reasons, but perhaps the three most relevant are: (i) a philosophicaJ interest in conceptual models; this is an interest shared by everyone who has ever puzzled over the relationship between thought and reality; (ii) a conviction, not unsupported by empirical evidence, that probabilistic modelling has an important contribution to make to scientific research; and finally (iii) a curiosity, historical in its nature, about the complex interplay between personal events and the development of a field of mathematical research, namely applied probability. Let me discuss each of these in turn. Philosophical Abstraction, the formation of concepts, and the construction of conceptual models present us with complex philosophical problems which date back to Democritus, Plato and Aristotle. We have all, at one time or another, wondered just how we think; are our thoughts, concepts and models of reality approxim&tions to the truth, or are they simply functional constructs helping us to master our environment? Nowhere are these problems more apparent than in mathematical model ling, where idealized concepts and constructions replace the imperfect realities for which they stand.続きを見る
目次 1 Early Craftsmen
Crafty Modelling
Looking at Life Quantitatively
Remembrance of Things Past
A Boy from the Bush
2 The Craft Organized
An Improbable Path
Some Samples of Modelling
Markovian Models-An Essay
Probability Modelling Across the Continents
Chance or Determinism?
Diffusion Models of Population Genetics in the Age of Molecular Biology
Return of the Wanderer: a Physicist Becomes a Probabilist
In the Late Afternoon
The Making of a Queueing Theorist
3 The Craft in Development
An Algorithmic Probabilist's Apology
Probability, Earthquakes and Travel Abroad
From Information Theory to Quantum Mechanics
From Real Analysis to Probability: Autobiographical Notes
The Path to the Genetics Sampling Formula
In and Out of Applied Probability in Australia.
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登録日 2020.06.27
更新日 2020.06.28