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Nowadays, most of Indonesia’s primary energy comes from fossil fuels, which continuously impact the environment. Indonesia continues to push for renewable energy penetration to replace fossil fuels to... reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, especially for electricity generation. This paper aims to create a long-term optimization model for the Java-Madura-Bali (JAMALI) electricity supply. Optimization is carried out with various GHG emission reduction scenarios to achieve net zero emissions (NZE) by 2060 using Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) software. Three scenarios were developed: (1) BAU scenario, a business-as-usual scenario without any new government interventions related to energy policy; (2) PHO scenario, phasing out coal power plant scenario; (3) CCUS scenario, accommodate carbon capture, utilization, and storage without coal power plant phase-out. JAMALI’s electricity demand by 2022 reached 60% of the total national electricity demand, of which fossil-based power plants supply more than 85%. Based on optimization, JAMALI’s electricity demand, according to the BAU scenario, would be 1072 TWh by 2060. In the BAU scenario, JAMALI does not require electricity imports. However, this leads to a significant increase in CO2 emissions, from 265 MtCO2e in 2022 to over 805 MtCO2e by 2060. The PHO and CCUS scenarios necessitate electricity imports from Kalimantan, Sumatra, and Nusa Tenggara. The total electricity imports in 2060 are projected to reach 180 TWh for the PHO scenario and 162 TWh for the CCUS scenario. The PHO scenario requires the installation of nuclear power plants with a capacity of 21.75 GW by 2060, whereas in the CCUS scenario, the presence of nuclear power plants is not deemed necessary due to the installation of carbon capture, utilization, and storage to the coal power plants. In both scenarios, PHO and CCUS will reach NZE by 2060.続きを見る
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Mendeley出力
p2567-2579