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Indonesian Government has paid serious attention to using electric vehicles (EV). The high price of EV was considered to be one of the reasons for the slow growth of EV in Indonesia. As of year 2022, ...the number of charging stations is 332 units; however, the number of registered electric cars has only reached 2,106 units. This paper discussed estimating the number of future electric charging stations based on the growth of electric passenger cars until 2040. The Gompertz function model was used to forecast the quantity of passenger cars. The number of passenger cars was calculated using car ownership as a proxy based on per capita income. Furthermore, three different scenarios were used to predict the number of EV: the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, the Moderate scenario (MOD) model (used for global growth conditions for electric cars), and the Advanced scenario (ADV) model (used for optimistic conditions). The demand for charging stations was determined using a ratio of 1:10 between charging stations and electric passenger cars. Under the BAU scenario, the demand for charging stations in Indonesia will increase from 7,953 units in 2025 to 202,424 units in 2040. Meanwhile, if the conditions for the development of electric passenger cars align with worldwide trends in MOD scenario, the need for charging stations will increase from 18,511 units in 2025 to 561,741 units in 2040. In the ADV scenario, if Indonesia completely pushes EV, it will require around 33,427 charging stations in 2025 and 967,427 units in 2040. However, this scenario is overly optimistic because charging stations must be built nearly twice as many as the world target (MOD) and four times as much as the BAU target. This requirement will be difficult to meet because the availability of power plants to deliver power needs also be taken into consideration.続きを見る
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Mendeley出力
p1744-1752