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Although the occurrences of the contagious diseases are according to very complicated circumstances, some of them may be still recognized as the rare events of the stochastic process of the weak conta...gion. The application of our method appealing to PÓLYA-EGGENBERGER’s law demands to calculate the two constants, i.e. the mean value h and the parameter of the weak contagion d. These calculations are not, however, so complicated. If the applications of our method are not successful, these two values h and d will give us a detailed insight of the contagion of the diseases. It is of couse to be remarked that the seasonal variations and non-homogeneity of the time-series will sometimes give deviations from the POISSON’s laws. Such discussions are omitted in this paper, which we postpone to another occasion. Thus this paper is our first attack on the contagious diseases from the standpoint of the limiting probability-law, whose validity can be safety claimed after certain further discussion.続きを見る
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