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| Abstract |
現行の基準・指針類による液状化予測は,想定されるある大きさの外力に対する液状化の有・無の判定という二者択一的手法であり,土質特性の不確定性,地震動の大きさに応じた液状化レベル,液状化に伴う損失などは評価されていない.本文は,リスクの概念を現行基準の液状化予測手法に導入し,外力や土質条件の不確定性および損失を考慮した液状化リスクの分析手法を提案したものである.モデル地盤を対象に,7つの異なる設計基準...・指針類をもとに,モンテカルロ・シミュレーションによる事例解析を行った.提案したリスク分析手法を用いることにより,対象地点における土質特性の不確定性を考慮した液状化の発生確率や損失率(期待損失額)などの定量的評価が可能であることが明らかになった.
In the existing design codes/standards on the evaluation of liquefaction potential, the uncertainty of soil properties and the expected loss are not taken into account. This paper proposes a new procedure for risk analysis to evaluate the potential risk of liquefaction quantitatively. Monte Carlo simulation is introduced in the proposed method to assess the uncertainty of soil properties. Risk analysis is made as a case study for a model liquefiable ground on the basis of the methods stated in the seven different design codes/standards in Japan. The result indicated that the new method enables to evaluate the probability of liquefaction and anticipated loss by constituting the hazard curve, fragility curve and risk curve.show more
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