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This study exammes time senes properties of expectation biases usmg a highfrequency survey on stock price forecasts, which required participants to forecast the Nikkei 225 over three forecasting horiz...ons: one day, one week, and one month ahead. Constructing proxies for overconfidence and optimism as the expectation biases, this study shows that overconfidence is likely to remain stable over time while optimism is not. Moreover, a relationship exists between optimism and stock price movement, demonstrating that people tend not to expect drastic changes when forecasting future stock prices. This tendency may be evidence that people have a status quo bias.show more
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DP2011-11