| 概要 |
The purpose of this study is to estimate the fiscal impact on Japanese governments, both national and local, of the anticipated Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquake; doing so would help us identify the... sovereign risk of both national and local governments. First, we estimated the impacts of the Great East Japan Earthquake on local public finance with panel data regressions using 2008-2012 fiscal data. Second, by employing anticipated-damage data-seismic intensity and area of inundation-of the Nankai earthquake and the coefficients estimated in the first step, we estimated the amounts of fiscal revenue and expenditures required in the case of the N ankai earthquake for every local government. Finally, we estimated the fiscal expenditure of national government in proportion to the estimated local ones. Our major findings are as follows. First, the estimated fiscal requirements in the two years after the earthquake are about JPY 161 trillion, as much as 5. 9 times those in the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Second, financial disparity between affected and non-affected local governments is growing; because the Nankai earthquake will affect a larger number of municipalities than the Great East Japan Earthquake, the fiscal burden of non-affected municipalities should be relatively higher. These facts obviously indicate that the N ankai earthquake will not only be a local disaster, but also a national catastrophe.続きを見る
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