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This study applied a Markov chain model to assess the long-term pavement condition of Caraga’s provincial road network under varying budget allocations. Using 2018–2023 road data from the DPWH’s RBIA... platform, transition probability matrices (TPMs) were computed and used to forecast 20-year deterioration trends. Maintenance and rehabilitation scenarios were tested under ₱200M, ₱300M, ₱400M, and actual average provincial budgets. Results showed Agusan del Norte deteriorates fastest (22%) but remains below serviceable thresholds even with cost-effective spending (BCR = 1.22). In contrast, Surigao del Norte achieved the highest BCR (1.42) by maintaining preventive maintenance. Forecasted state scores (FS_₂₀) revealed critical intervention periods vary by province. The integration of TPMs with economic indicators (NPV, BCR) offers a practical framework for optimizing road investments. This approach supports data-driven, province-specific maintenance strategies essential for sustaining road quality in growing regions like Caraga.続きを見る
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Mendeley出力
2025_p0318