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本研究では，東シナ海領域を対象に，自己組織化マップを用いて暖候期の気象場を分類し，豪雨の発生時間帯の傾向を分析した．その結果，暖湿気流と前線を反映した気象場で，早朝を中心とした午前に豪雨発生確率と豪雨発生頻度が高くなる傾向が認められた．次に，その気象場に着目して，災害発生に繋がる最大級の豪雨域の規模と時間雨量に対する時間帯依存性を調べた．その結果，最大級の豪雨域の規模は，午前と午後後半（18～2...3時台）に広く，午後前半（12～17時台）に狭くなる傾向を示した．一方，最大級の時間雨量で見ると，その時間帯依存性は弱くなるが，約8割の豪雨イベントで，時間帯に関係なく，防災上警戒を要する80mm/h以上の猛烈な雨量を示した．さらに，最大級の豪雨域の規模と時間雨量は豪雨災害事例と密接に関連することがわかった．
The first aim of this study is to investigate the features of diurnal variations in heavy rainfall frequency, and to relate them to typical meteorological fields during a warm season in Kyushu, Japan, using Self-Organizing Map (SOM). The result showed a tendency of higher heavy rainfall frequency in the morning compared with in the afternoon. The meteorological field patterns are characterized by the inflow of warm and humid air into frontal area. The second aim of this study is to clarify significant relationships between heavy rainfall hours of the day and disasters cases which occurred in Kyushu during 2006 and 2020 using the first and second maxima of heavy rainfall scale and hourly rainfall recorded in each hour. One of the trends is characterized by widespread and local heavy rainfall in the morning including sleeping time and in the daytime, respectively. Actually, the time-dependent features are true of disaster cases including 2017 and 2020 disaster cases in Kyushu. Therefore, the findings provide strong evidence for night-time disaster prevention in Kyushu.続きを見る
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