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First the theories and procedures of five methods by Fuller, Hazen, Goodrich and Slade, used generally for estimating porbable flood in America, were precisely investigated and practically applied to ...River Tone in Japan, using the date of annual floods for 25 years at Kurihashi. As a result it was recognized that to adopt foreign semiempirical formulas for Japanese rivers without any modification is dangerous and that we cannot hope to get accurate result, without standing upon statistical grounds. Among these statistical methods, the methods based upon "the distribution obtained by logarithmically transforming the variable in Gauss' Normal Distribution" seemed to be effective. Thus a new estimating method based upon this type of distribution was proposed which is appreciated to be the most theoretical and applicable method. Furthermore, upon investingating many Japanese rivers, River yodo and etc. besides River Tone, with the above methods, it was found that the coefficients of flood were significantly larger and the coefficients of variation and skewness were very different compared to the respective coefficients of American rivers. This fact is a sound basis that Japan is a very floody country. Also it is known that the presumed flood discharge of River Tone is much less than those of many other rivers, the presumed flood discharges of the former being estimated as from 25 to 40 years flood in the improvement work at Kurihashi, while the flood discharges of the latter as from 50 to 100 years floods, so the dangerous condition at Kurihashi should have been precautioned before the disaster of Sept., 1947. But at any rate Japanese river seldom have adequate presumed flood discharges greater than 100 years flood which is the American minimum standard. We should, therefore, adopt proper flood discharges for our rivers upon considering the financial conditlon of our country. Hence, it is stressed that such a study is not only absolutely necessary in future, but also that it is a very effective method in planning an ideal river controle works according to the weights of the various rivers from the point of view of statistical economics. Upon application of the methods of Grassberger, Gibrat and Kimball, the writer proposed a different new precise method and found a stochastical testing method of goodness of fit o estif mated duration curve from the theory of small samples, the details of which will be explained at the next opportunity.続きを見る
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まえがき 1.確率洪水の概念 2.種々の確率洪水推定法 (1)Fuller法,(2)Foster法,(3)Hazen法,(4)Goodrich法,(5)Slade法(兩限とも有限な分布),(6)岩井法 3.各推定法の吟味 4.計畫高水流量の檢討 5.結論
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